Bayesian Inference in Phylogeny - Basic Bayesian Theory

Basic Bayesian Theory

Recall that for Bayesian inference:

The denominator is the marginal probability of the data, averaged over all possible parameter values weighted by their prior distribution. Formally,

where is the parameter space for .

In the original Metropolis algorithm, given a current -value, and a new -value, the new value is accepted with probability:

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