You might consider this idea with enthusiasm or skepticism, but mobile TV might soon represent a much larger market for the cell phone industry than today's ringtones or text messages. In "TV Phones Prep for Prime Time," BusinessWeek says that according to In-Stat, revenues could grow from $32 million in 2004 to $1.9 billion in 2008. (I'm always amazed by analysts' forecasts.) For example, a small Californian company, Sling Media, will launch its first product to deliver streaming video content to your handheld devices in just a few months. And wireless operators, phone makers and cable companies are all working on similar programs. Of course, they only plan to sell you short programs, such as news or music clips. Besides the facts that the screen of your phone is small and that you'll need faster networks than today's ones, would you subscribe to such a service? Read more...
As often, the BusinessWeek story starts with an anecdote before moving to the big picture.
Two years ago, Blake Krikorian had to travel on business just as his favorite baseball team, the San Francisco Giants, unexpectedly earned a place in the World Series for the first time in 13 years. Krikorian desperately wanted to watch the games but had few options. At the time, he wished he could watch it on his cell phone. But no such service was available.
Sensing a business opportunity, Krikorian began to investigate the concept, and in June of this year he launched Sling Media. The San Mateo (Calif.)-based company's first product, due out in the first quarter of 2005, will stream video content to handheld devices.
The company found $10 million to start its business and enrolled companies such as Microsoft or Texas Instruments as partners. Does this mean there is a real market here?
Mobile TV is a promising frontier in the handheld industry. The ranks of subscribers could jump from 273,000 by yearend to 1.2 million in 2005, and revenues could grow from $32.8 million in 2004 to $47.5 million in 2005 -- and $1.9 billion in 2008, figures Clint Wheelock, an analyst with tech consultancy In-Stat.
Eventually, mobile TV might far outshine the markets for popular wireless data services such as ringtones and short text messaging. An In-Stat survey of 1,009 people done in February showed that Americans are far more excited about mobile TV than about any other data application offered so far.
As I almost only watch TV to catch old movies, I'm not terribly excited by the idea of watching them on my cell phone. But this is not the future of mobile TV.
User surveys conducted by Digital Video Recorder (DVR) company TiVo indicate that Americans spend only two to five hours a week watching feature-length movies. The bulk of their 20-plus TV viewing hours each week goes to watching shorter programs, such as news footage or music videos.
Such clips might be perfect for viewing on a cell phone -- say, while you're stuck on a train on the way to work. Many industry watchers believe the handset will turn into the third TV screen in our lives, behind the home TV and the PC. "This is really a service with mass appeal," Wheelock says.
BusinessWeek then looks at mobile TV future plans currently under development at wireless providers, phone makers and cable companies. And it writes that all these future providers of mobile TV contents are facing the same problem. Current networks are not fast enough.
For now, though, perfect-picture quality requires a wireless connection with speed of at least 100 kilobits per second. So, streaming devices may be confined to areas equipped with wireless high-speed Internet access technology called Wi-Fi (wireless fidelity), such as Starbucks outlets.
Of course, wireless networks have a long way to go in terms of quality and speed before such services will be able to take on the TV. Cell phones' memory would have to grow dramatically, and their battery life would need to make a major leap. Still, mobile TV could be the new horizon in wireless handhelds.
Will I ever watch TV news in the Paris subway? I have some doubts. And you, what do you think of the idea of watching TV on your cell phone? Please post your comments below.
Source: Olga Kharif, BusinessWeek Online, Decmber 1, 2004
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