Republic of China Presidential Election, 2004 - Demographic Trends and Public Opinion

Demographic Trends and Public Opinion

On the day of the election, each member of the electorate (most adult citizens aged 20 and upwards) stamped one from the two choices of president/vice-president tickets on the ballot. Since Taiwan does not provide absentee ballots, large numbers of Taiwanese expatriates living in North America and Mainland China returned to Taiwan to vote. Typical estimates indicate that about 20,000 people travelled from North America and between 100,000 and 150,000 people travelled from Mainland China. Most analysts believe that the voters from North America would be split evenly between the two candidates, but that those from Mainland China voted overwhelmingly for Pan-Blue.

Polls indicated that Taiwan is split with about one-third identifying themselves as Pan-Blue, one-third identifying themselves as Pan-Green, and one-third as centrist. They also show very little cross-party voting with over 90% of people who identify with one party group stating that they will vote for the party.

Pan-Blue tends to do well among Mainlanders, Taiwanese aborigines, and Hakka. They also have the support of people from age 30-50, among the very rich, and very poor, and among people from northern and eastern Taiwan. Pan-Green does well among people 20-30 and people from 50-60, among people with formal education like doctors, and among people from southern Taiwan.

The margin in favor of Pan-Blue narrowed significantly after the 228 Hand-in-Hand Rally, with some polls showing Pan-Green in the lead. Taiwanese law forbids publishing any poll results, either current or historical, less than ten days before the election.