The Maes–Garreau law is the statement that "most favorable predictions about future technology will fall within the Maes–Garreau point", defined as "the latest possible date a prediction can come true and still remain in the lifetime of the person making it". Specifically, it relates to predictions of a technological singularity or other radical future technologies.
It has been referred to as a "law of human nature", although Kelly's evidence is anecdotal.
The Maes-Garreau effect is contradicted by analysis of a much larger set of AI predictions of 95 predictions extracted from a database of 257 AI predictions, which finds a broad array of estimates before and after a predictor's estimated longevity.
Other articles related to "law":
Famous quotes containing the word law:
“If the law supposes that, said Mr. Bumble, squeezing his hat emphatically in both hands, the law is a assa idiot. If thats the eye of the law, the law is a bachelor; and the worst I wish the law is, that his eye may be opened by experienceby experience.”
—Charles Dickens (18121870)