Maes-Garreau Law

Maes-Garreau Law

The Maes–Garreau law is the statement that "most favorable predictions about future technology will fall within the Maes–Garreau point", defined as "the latest possible date a prediction can come true and still remain in the lifetime of the person making it". Specifically, it relates to predictions of a technological singularity or other radical future technologies.

It has been referred to as a "law of human nature", although Kelly's evidence is anecdotal.

The Maes-Garreau effect is contradicted by analysis of a much larger set of AI predictions of 95 predictions extracted from a database of 257 AI predictions, which finds a broad array of estimates before and after a predictor's estimated longevity.

Read more about Maes-Garreau LawOrigin of The Law

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Maes-Garreau Law - Origin of The Law
... Kevin Kelly, editor of Wired magazine, created the law in 2007 after being influenced by Pattie Maes at MIT and Joel Garreau (author of Radical Evolution) ...

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