Impact On Russia and Ukraine
Both Russia and Ukraine claimed to have emerged triumphant from the dispute, but both countries sustained major blows to their economies in the middle of an already serious economic crisis. Gazprom was estimated to have lost about $1.5 billion in revenues due to lack of sales, while Ukraine lost an estimated $100 million in transit fees and was speculated to have incurred major economic losses due to much of its industry, the backbone of its economy, being temporarily shut down. Analysts pointed out that the crisis and the way it was handled had a negative and possibly irreversible impact on the reputations of both Russia as an energy supplier, and Ukraine as a transit country. According to the Czech foreign minister, "The main lesson learned from this crisis is that Russia and Ukraine aren’t reliable suppliers. Europe must think about alternative sources and pipelines." The President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso similarly expressed during the crisis that by failing to honor supply agreements Russia and Ukraine could no longer be considered reliable energy partners.
Despite calls for European energy diversity being amplified as a result of the crisis, Russia's European customers have long term legal contracts for gas deliveries. Most of these contracts stretch beyond 2025–2030 and obligations to these contracts remain despite the crisis. Thus European countries can do little in the short-medium term in the ways of diversification away from Russian gas, but diversification of delivery routes away from Ukraine could potentially be achieved within a few years via projects such as the South Stream and Nord Stream pipeline systems.
Read more about this topic: 2009 Russia–Ukraine Gas Dispute
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