The sunrise problem can be expressed as follows: "What is the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow?"
The sunrise problem illustrates the difficulty of using probability theory when evaluating the plausibility of statements or beliefs.
According to the Bayesian interpretation of probability, probability theory can be used to evaluate the plausibility of the statement, "The sun will rise tomorrow." We just need a hypothetical random process that determines whether the sun will rise tomorrow or not. Based on past observations, we can infer the parameters of this random process, and from there evaluate the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow.
... One faces a similar reference class problem which sample of stars should one use ... will naturally lead one to select the stars of same age and size, and so on, to resolve this problem ...
Famous quotes containing the words problem and/or sunrise:
“The problem is that we attempt to solve the simplest questions cleverly, thereby rendering them unusually complex. One should seek the simple solution.”
—Anton Pavlovich Chekhov (18601904)
“I have passed down the river before sunrise on a summer morning, between fields of lilies still shut in sleep; and when, at length, the flakes of sunlight from over the bank fell on the surface of the water, whole fields of white blossoms seemed to flash open before me, as I floated along, like the unfolding of a banner, so sensible is this flower to the influence of the suns rays.”
—Henry David Thoreau (18171862)