Suit Combinations - Improved Computer Analysis - Example

Example

♥ A 10 4 2
♥ 9 5 3

This suit combination is an example. Two tricks are required.

The line of play claimed by the 5th edition of The Official Encyclopedia of Bridge to guarantee 51% success is: "Lead small to the nine. If this loses to West, finesse the ten next. If an honor appears from East on the first round, lead small to the nine again; if East shows out or plays another honor, finesse the ten next; otherwise play to the ace."

However, using computerised exhaustive searches of his own design, Warmerdam found a play that he claims leads to at least 58% success against any possible defense: "Lead small to the nine. If this loses to West, cash the ace. If an honor appears from East on the first round, run the 9 and if it loses finesse the ten." The 6th edition of The Official Encyclopedia of Bridge recommends the same line of play as Warmerdam but states that the chance of success is 51%; the 7th edition corrected the percentage to 58%.

Read more about this topic:  Suit Combinations, Improved Computer Analysis

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