Georgia's 4th Congressional District Election, 2006 - Polls and Predictions For The Primary Runoff

Polls and Predictions For The Primary Runoff

The first poll on the race was done right after the primary on July 26, 2006. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that a poll by InsiderAdvantage "shows challenger Hank Johnson with a hefty lead over incumbent Cynthia McKinney in the Democratic run-off for the 4th District congressional race. The poll shows Johnson leading McKinney, 46 to 21 percent, with a third of voters undecided."

Insider Advantage took a second poll on July 31, 2006. Johnson still led McKinney, but by a smaller margin of 49 to 34 percent, with 17 percent undecided. InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery commented that "There has been some shift in African American voters in McKinney’s direction. However, the black vote remains split with local black leaders endorsing Johnson, who is trouncing McKinney among eligible white voters.

A poll taken on August 3, 2006, indicated that Johnson was leading McKinney heading into the final weekend before the runoff election. The poll of 300 eligible voters found that Johnson's support was at 52 percent and McKinney's support was at 39 percent, the first time that a poll placed Johnson above the 50 percent level. The poll only had nine percent undecideds. Early voting in the Fourth Congressional District was high.

The last poll by InsiderAdvantage before the primary runoff election, taken on August 6, 2006, gave the impression that Johnson had strengthened his lead in the race against McKinney. The poll showed Johnson leading McKinney, 53 percent to 40 percent. Seven percent were undecided.

Based upon historical results in Georgia runoff elections, many experts in Georgia politics believed that Johnson was the favorite to win the runoff election. University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock said that McKinney would probably lose because historically most incumbents forced into a runoff in Georgia do. "There is blood in the water and the sharks are circling," Bullock concluded. Merle Black, a political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta, expressed a similar sentiment, "An incumbent who is forced into a runoff is a serious sign of weakness. Johnson’s vote will go up, he’ll raise a lot of money, and the momentum has gone over to Johnson.

Read more about this topic:  Georgia's 4th Congressional District Election, 2006

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