Gambler's Fallacy

The Gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy (because its most famous example happened in a Monte Carlo Casino in 1913), and also referred to as the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely.

Read more about Gambler's FallacyAn Example: Coin-tossing, Explaining Why The Probability Is 1/2 For A Fair Coin, Other Examples, Reverse Fallacy, Caveats, Childbirth, Monte Carlo Casino, Non-examples of The Fallacy

Famous quotes containing the words fallacy and/or gambler:

    I’m not afraid of facts, I welcome facts but a congeries of facts is not equivalent to an idea. This is the essential fallacy of the so-called “scientific” mind. People who mistake facts for ideas are incomplete thinkers; they are gossips.
    Cynthia Ozick (b. 1928)

    I have a notion that gamblers are as happy as most people, being always excited; women, wine, fame, the table, even ambition, sate now & then, but every turn of the card & cast of the dice keeps the gambler alive—besides one can game ten times longer than one can do any thing else.
    George Gordon Noel Byron (1788–1824)