You all know that it is far safer to travel by plane than by car. Still, major plane crashes occur from time to time. But minor accidents caused by turbulence also happen and have been the cause of about 250 deaths in the U.S. from 1992 to 2001. This is why a new turbulence detection system designed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is being tested by United Airlines on some commercial flights. The new system analyzes data obtained from the National Weather Service's network of Next-Generation (NEXRAD) Doppler radars and transmits real-time snapshots of turbulence to pilots in their cockpits. This system could be used by all U.S. airlines within 4 years.
For example, you can see above a screenshot of a Web-based display showing in situ turbulence reports overlaid on contours of the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) turbulence forecast product. (Credit: Research Applications Laboratory (RAL)'s Aviation Applications Program). This research has been led for several years now by NCAR scientist John Williams.
But how pilots are dealing with turbulence today? "Pilots in the past have lacked accurate measurements of turbulence that develops in clouds and thunderstorms, partly because turbulent areas may be small, evolve quickly, and occur outside the most intense parts of the storm. As a result, FAA [the Federal Aviation Administration] guidelines suggest that planes avoid thunderstorms by at least 20 miles when possible, even though large sections of that area may contain relatively calm air."
So how was this new system designed? "Pinpointing turbulence in clouds and thunderstorms is a major scientific challenge," says NCAR scientist John Williams. "Our goal is to use these radar measurements to create a three-dimensional mosaic showing turbulence across the country that can help pilots avoid hazardous areas, or at least give them enough warning to turn on the 'fasten seat belt' sign."
This system is being tested until October by a group of United Airlines pilots who fly routes east of the Rockies. Are they satisfied? "The pilots, who receive information in their cockpits about turbulence detected ahead, report that the system provides them with accurate information about turbulence that is not available from any other source."
So what's the next step? "Depending on the results of this year's tests, the next step may be to expand the system to additional United aircraft or other airlines. Williams anticipates that, by 2011, the NTDA will provide input to a system over the contiguous United States that will update comprehensive turbulence "nowcasts" for pilots and air traffic managers every 15 minutes."
For more information, you might want to read this RAL report about turbulence (PDF format, 2 pages, 2.77 MB, September 2006) from which the above picture has been extracted. Here is a potential schedule about the evolution of the project. "GTG is a constantly evolving product, and regular upgrades are expected over the next several years. The next upgrade, currently scheduled for early 2009, will include mountain wave turbulence and probabilistic forecasts. Convectively induced turbulence nowcast (based in part on in situ EDR and NTDA analyses) and forecast products are scheduled for ADDS [Aviation Digital Data Service] implementation in 2010."
Sources: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research news release, September 6, 2007; and various websites
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