My favorite forecaster, Gartner, is back with a new series of predictions about the way we'll interact with our computing devices. Here is the introduction.
Human-computer interfaces will rapidly improve during the next decade. The wide availability of cheaper display technologies will be one of the most transformational events in the IT industry.
In 2003, product development of input and output human-computer interfaces will be slow but steady. Few products will reach the marketplace until 2005; however, after that date, their availability and their rate of adoption by enterprises will begin to accelerate. Display technology will be the exception -- industry buzz about innovative screens is already widespread -- and will advance more rapidly than other interface technology.
Not exactly a scoop, isn't? But wait, here is a real prediction.
Computer screens will become ubiquitous in the everyday environment.
Light-emitting polymers (LEPs) and organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) are likely to replace mobile screens (because current technologies are expensive and not energy-efficient) and paper displays (such as those seen in retail outlets and airports). Screens will also be placed in completely new environments and contexts (for example, parking, public places, shopping malls, and airports) to display dynamic data--pricing information and so on--that is not usually displayed today.
I guess that the author saw "Minority Report."
Ready for another prediction?
Today, most humans convey information to computers through a keyboard and a mouse. Much work has been done since the 1980s to improve speech and handwriting recognition capabilities, but such work has met with limited success.
Through 2012, more than 95 percent (by volume in gigabytes) of human-to-computer information input will remain keyboard- and mouse-based (0.6 probability).
In the mobile context, however, new modes such as handwriting and speech will begin to augment the pen-based interfaces. By 2005, more than 70 percent of new personal digital assistants will offer native support for acceptable cursive handwriting recognition and voice command capabilities (0.8 probability).
For additional predictions, please read the article. And to check if Gartner is right, rendez-vous in 2012.
Source: Alexander Linden, Originally published by Gartner, December 4, 2002
12:54:13 PM
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